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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">ISPRS-Archives</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">ISPRS-Archives</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">2194-9034</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/isprs-archives-L-4-W1-2026-63-2026</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Comparing uncertainty quantification methods for Random Forest-based digital soil mapping</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hints</surname>
<given-names>Liina</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Aunap</surname>
<given-names>Raivo</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kull</surname>
<given-names>Meelis</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Choi</surname>
<given-names>Jeonghwan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0002-5027-1151</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kmoch</surname>
<given-names>Alexander</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4386-4450</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geography, Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Computer Science, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>29</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>L-4/W1-2026</volume>
<fpage>63</fpage>
<lpage>70</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Liina Hints et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://isprs-archives.copernicus.org/articles/L-4-W1-2026/63/2026/isprs-archives-L-4-W1-2026-63-2026.html">This article is available from https://isprs-archives.copernicus.org/articles/L-4-W1-2026/63/2026/isprs-archives-L-4-W1-2026-63-2026.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://isprs-archives.copernicus.org/articles/L-4-W1-2026/63/2026/isprs-archives-L-4-W1-2026-63-2026.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://isprs-archives.copernicus.org/articles/L-4-W1-2026/63/2026/isprs-archives-L-4-W1-2026-63-2026.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Uncertainty quantification is essential for using machine learning-based soil maps in decision-making, but the uncertainty communicated to users can depend strongly on the method used. This is especially relevant for soil organic carbon (SOC), where spatial predictions are used in carbon accounting, land management, and climate-related reporting. This study compares five uncertainty quantification methods within a shared Random Forest-based SOC modelling workflow for Estonia: 1) Quantile Regression Forest, 2) Conformalized Quantile Regression, 3) land use-conditional Conformalized Quantile Regression, 4) Random Forest-based calibration of conformity scores, and 5) land use-conditional split conformal prediction. Using 1004 SOC observations and 16 environmental covariates, the study evaluates how these methods differ in coverage, sharpness, land use- and SOC-specific calibration, environmental patterns of high uncertainty, and relationship with Area of Applicability.&lt;br /&gt;All tested methods produced reasonably good marginal coverage for 90% prediction intervals, but differed in their local behaviour and sharpness. The results show that decomposing prediction interval diagnostics by land use and predicted SOC range provides a more informative view of uncertainty quality. High uncertainty was linked to specific environmental covariate combinations, suggesting that interval-based uncertainty patterns could help identify conditions where additional sampling may be useful. Prediction interval width and Area of Applicability were only weakly related. The main contribution of this study is a structured diagnostic framework for comparing prediction interval-based uncertainty methods at both marginal and more local levels, while also improving our understanding of how interval-based uncertainty relates to environmental conditions and model applicability in Estonia&amp;rsquo;s SOC model.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="8"/></counts>
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