Urban Heat Island Growth Modeling Using Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Regression: A case study of Tehran, Iran

Abstract. Numerous investigations on Urban Heat Island (UHI) show that land cover change is the main factor of increasing Land Surface Temperature (LST) in urban areas. Therefore, to achieve a model which is able to simulate UHI growth, urban expansion should be concerned first. Considerable researches on urban expansion modeling have been done based on cellular automata. Accordingly the objective of this paper is to implement CA method for trend detection of Tehran UHI spatiotemporal growth based on urban sprawl parameters (such as Distance to nearest road, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), Slope and Aspect ratios). It should be mentioned that UHI growth modeling may have more complexities in comparison with urban expansion, since the amount of each pixel’s temperature should be investigated instead of its state (urban and non-urban areas). The most challenging part of CA model is the definition of Transfer Rules. Here, two methods have used to find appropriate transfer Rules which are Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR). The reason of choosing these approaches is that artificial neural networks and support vector regression have significant abilities to handle the complications of such a spatial analysis in comparison with other methods like Genetic or Swarm intelligence. In this paper, UHI change trend has discussed between 1984 and 2007. For this purpose, urban sprawl parameters in 1984 have calculated and added to the retrieved LST of this year. In order to achieve LST, Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) night-time images have exploited. The reason of implementing night-time images is that UHI phenomenon is more obvious during night hours. After that multilayer feed-forward neural networks and support vector regression have used separately to find the relationship between this data and the retrieved LST in 2007. Since the transfer rules might not be the same in different regions, the satellite image of the city has divided to several parts and for each part a specific CA model has defined. In the training step some pixels have randomly selected to calibrate the neural network and the regression. Then, using the trained neural network and support vector regression, LST in year 2007 has retrieved for all pixels. Results have indicated a great relationship between the simulated LST and the real one which has retrieved from thermal band of satellite image in 2007 (r = 0.843 for ANN method and r = 0.856 for SVR method). Although SVR caused to a better result, this method is much more time consuming than ANN method, especially when the number of training pixels increase.