An experimental case study to estimate Pre-harvest Wheat Acreage/Production in Hilly and Plain region of Uttarakhand state: Challenges and solutions of problems by using satellite data

Abstract. Wheat is an economically important Rabi crop for the state, which is grown on around 26 % of total available agriculture area in the state. There is a variation in productivity of wheat crop in hilly and tarai region. The agricultural productivity is less in hilly region in comparison of tarai region due to terrace cultivation, traditional system of agriculture, small land holdings, variation in physiography, top soil erosion, lack of proper irrigation system etc.

Pre-harvest acreage/yield/production estimation of major crops is being done with the help of conventional crop cutting method, which is biased, inaccurate and time consuming. Remote Sensing data with multi-temporal and multi-spectral capabilities has shown new dimension in crop discrimination analysis and acreage/yield/production estimation in recent years. In view of this, Uttarakhand Space Applications Centre (USAC), Dehradun with the collaboration of Space Applications Centre (SAC), ISRO, Ahmedabad and Uttarakhand State Agriculture Department, have developed different techniques for the discrimination of crops and estimation of pre-harvest wheat acreage/yield/production. In the 1st phase, five districts (Dehradun, Almora, Udham Singh Nagar, Pauri Garhwal and Haridwar) with distinct physiography i.e. hilly and plain regions, have been selected for testing and verification of techniques using IRS (Indian Remote Sensing Satellites), LISS-III, LISS-IV satellite data of Rabi season for the year 2008–09 and whole 13 districts of the Uttarakhand state from 2009–14 along with ground data were used for detailed analysis. Five methods have been developed i.e. NDVI (Normalized Differential Vegetation Index), Supervised classification, Spatial modeling, Masking out method and Programming on visual basics methods using multitemporal satellite data of Rabi season along with the collateral and ground data. These methods were used for wheat discriminations and preharvest acreage estimations and subsequently results were compared with Bureau of Estimation Statistics (BES). Out of these five different methods, wheat area that was estimated by spatial modeling and programming on visual basics has been found quite near to Bureau of Estimation Statistics (BES). But for hilly region, maximum fields were going in shadow region, so it was difficult to estimate accurate result, so frequency distribution curve method has been used and frequency range has been decided to discriminate wheat pixels from other pixels in hilly region, digitized those regions and result shows good result. For yield estimation, an algorithm has been developed by using soil characteristics i.e. texture, depth, drainage, temperature, rainfall and historical yield data. To get the production estimation, estimated yield multiplied by acreage of crop per hectare. Result shows deviation for acreage estimation from BES is around 3.28 %, 2.46 %, 3.45 %, 1.56 %, 1.2 % and 1.6 % (estimation not declared till now by state Agriculture dept. For the year 2013–14) estimation and deviation for production estimation is around 4.98 %, 3.66 % 3.21 % , 3.1 % NA and 2.9 % for the consecutive above mentioned years i.e. 2008–09, 2009–10, 2010–11, 2011–12, 2012–13 and 2013–14. The estimated data has been provided to State Agriculture department for their use. To forecast production before harvest facilitate the formulation of workable marketing strategies leading to better export/import of crop in the state, which will help to lead better economic condition of the state. Yield estimation would help agriculture department in assessment of productivity of land for specific crop. Pre-harvest wheat acreage/production estimation, is useful to facilitate the reliable and timely estimates and enable the administrators and planners to take strategic decisions on import-export policy matters and trade negotiations.