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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">ISPRS-Archives</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">ISPRS-Archives</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">2194-9034</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/isprs-archives-XLI-B2-285-2016</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>MODELING URBAN DYNAMICS USING RANDOM FOREST: IMPLEMENTING ROC  AND TOC FOR MODEL EVALUATION</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ahmadlou</surname>
<given-names>M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Delavar</surname>
<given-names>M. R.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9654-6491</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Shafizadeh-Moghadam</surname>
<given-names>H.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tayyebi</surname>
<given-names>A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>GIS Dept., School of Surveying and Geospatial Eng., College of Eng., University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Center of Excellence in Geomatic Eng. in Disaster Management, School of Surveying and Geospatial Eng., College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Department of GIS and Remote Sensing, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Center for Conservation Biology, University of California-Riverside, Riverside, CA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>07</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>XLI-B2</volume>
<fpage>285</fpage>
<lpage>290</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2016 M. Ahmadlou et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2016</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://isprs-archives.copernicus.org/articles/XLI-B2/285/2016/isprs-archives-XLI-B2-285-2016.html">This article is available from https://isprs-archives.copernicus.org/articles/XLI-B2/285/2016/isprs-archives-XLI-B2-285-2016.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://isprs-archives.copernicus.org/articles/XLI-B2/285/2016/isprs-archives-XLI-B2-285-2016.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://isprs-archives.copernicus.org/articles/XLI-B2/285/2016/isprs-archives-XLI-B2-285-2016.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The importance of spatial accuracy of land use/cover change maps necessitates the use of high performance models. To reach this
goal, calibrating machine learning (ML) approaches to model land use/cover conversions have received increasing interest among
the scholars. This originates from the strength of these techniques as they powerfully account for the complex relationships
underlying urban dynamics. Compared to other ML techniques, random forest has rarely been used for modeling urban growth. This
paper, drawing on information from the multi-temporal Landsat satellite images of 1985, 2000 and 2015, calibrates a random forest
regression (RFR) model to quantify the variable importance and simulation of urban change spatial patterns. The results and
performance of RFR model were evaluated using two complementary tools, relative operating characteristics (ROC) and total
operating characteristics (TOC), by overlaying the map of observed change and the modeled suitability map for land use change
(error map). The suitability map produced by RFR model showed 82.48% area under curve for the ROC model which indicates a
very good performance and highlights its appropriateness for simulating urban growth.</p>
</abstract>
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