INVESTIGATION OF URBAN GROWTH EFFECTS ON FOREST AREA BY CREATING DIFFERENT SIMULATION SCENARIOS

Abstract. It is necessary to keep urban growth under control according to the understanding of sustainable urban management in rapidly growing cities. In other words, sustainable urban management requires estimating how the land cover will change and in which direction the urbanization will be in the coming years, as well as knowing the current structures of the cities. Therefore, simulation models are frequently used for monitoring urban growth. The results of simulation models help to obtain background information that will be the basis for the formation of a “sustainable urban life” by allowing the determination of the natural areas that can face the threat of urbanization. The cadastral structure is one of the basic variables affecting the growth of a city. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to investigate urban growth by producing cadastral parcel-based simulation models. The land cover data required to create a simulation model were generated from cadastral maps and land registry data, in four different time periods. Within the scope of the study, cellular automata-based urban growth simulation models for the years 2030, 2050 and 2070 were produced, and the land cover changes that occurred in Sancaktepe were investigated.