JUTE CROP PRODUCTION ESTIMATION IN MAJOR STATES OF INDIA: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF LAST 6 YEARS’ FASAL AND DES ESTIMATES

Abstract. In the last few years, remote sensing technique has emerged as a viable technology for crop acreage estimation. Under the FASAL project, the jute acreage estimation was carried out in the last 6 years by using both microwave SAR data (2012–13 to 2016–17) and high resolution optical multi-spectral data (2017–18). In the assessment using SAR data, hierarchical decision rule classification technique and for optical data hybrid classification approach was used. Yield was estimated using, agro-meteorological parameter based statistical models. In the present study, different statistical parameters such as correlation coefficient (r) and RMSE were used for evaluating and comparing the results of the last 6 years (2012–13 to 2017–18) with DES (government) estimates. The RMSE values over the years were found to be 7–20% and 5–13% for area and production, respectively. The correlation coefficient (r) over the years between DES and FASAL estimates ranging between 0.995 to 1.00 and 0.996 to 1.00 in acreage and production estimates respectively. At district level, the correlation coefficient (r) values for the area and production were 0.967 and 0.962 respectively. On the basis of statistical criteria used in this study, FASAL estimates were close to DES estimates and improved over the years. The FASAL jute production estimates could be called better than DES ones in terms of good accuracy, timely reporting and low labour intensive. Thus, the FASAL estimates can be continued for policy purposes as far as jute production forecasts are concerned in India.