CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT AND RESPONSE OF RICE YIELD

Abstract. Rice is an important cereal crop and part of daily diet not only in India but also throughout Asia. Agriculture is highly dependent on the variations in temperature, precipitation and solar radiation and long-term climate patterns. The pattern of changing climate in last 30 years indicate that predictable and possible changes in rainfall and temperature can reduce agriculture outputs and yields particularly for rice and wheat significantly. The main aim of this research paper is to study the Kharif Rice Productivity in Hisar, Haryana under changing climate. The study focuses on the impacts of climate change namely intensity, timings and spatial distribution of rainfall. Kharif rice is more vulnerable to meteorological drought due to growing uncertainties in monsoon rains under the changing climate patterns. The study of seasonal changes in precipitation at decadal scale for observed and CORDEX projected precipitation for the selected region was done to understand the impacts of climate change. Along with this, DSSAT Crop Simulation Model was run to quantify the water stress in the years with more negative rainfall departure and to identify the reasons for variability in yield. DSSAT model was able to simulate phenological events and final grain yield at maturity stage with reasonable accuracy under varied weather conditions. The analysis of the simulated results indicates the association between yield and rainfall amount and its distribution during the season and different phenological growth stages of rice. The results further indicate that water stress at important stages such as Booting, Heading and Flowering majorly impact the final yield.