A NEURAL NETWORK REGRESSION MODEL FOR ESTIMATING MAXIMUM DAILY AIR TEMPERATURE USING LANDSAT-8 DATA

Abstract. Urban Heat Islands (UHI) phenomenon is a pressing problem for highly industrialized areas with serious risks for public health. Weather stations guarantee long-term accurate observations of weather parameters, such Air Temperature (AT), but lack appropriate spatial coverage. Numerous studies have argued that satellite Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a relevant parameter for estimating AT maps, exploring both linear regression and Machine Learning algorithms. This study proposes a Neural Network (NN) regression model for estimating the maximum AT from Landsat-8 data. The approach has been tested in a variegated morphological region (Puglia, Italy) using a large stack of data acquired from 2018 to 2020. The algorithm uses the median values of LST and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) computed using different buffer radius around the location of each reference weather station (250 m, 1000 m, and 2000 m) to train the NN model with a K-fold cross-validation strategy. The reference dataset was split into three sets using a stratified sampling approach considering the different station categories: rural, High- and Low-density Urban areas respectively. The algorithm was tested with different learning rates (LR) (0.001 and 0.005). The results show that our NN model accuracy improves with the increase of the buffer radius, minimizing the difference in terms of R^2 between training and evaluation data, with an overall accuracy consistently higher than 0.84. Future research could investigate more input variables in the NN model such as morphology or climate variables and test the algorithm on larger areas.