Climate Transition Zones as Emerging Hotspots for Natural Hazards: Insights from Land Use- Climate Feedbacks Amplify Disaster Risk in Taiwan

Abstract. Human-driven land use change and global climate variability are jointly reshaping regional environmental processes, yet their combined influence on climate classification and hazard dynamics remains underexplored. This study integrates satellite-derived land use/land cover (LULC) data, Köppen–Geiger climate classifications derived from CHIRPS precipitation and MODIS land surface temperature, and a disaster inventory (2001–2020) to examine land–climate–hazard interactions in Taiwan. Results indicate notable LULC transitions, including a 0.98% increase in woody savannas and a 0.72% decline in wetlands, coinciding with a significant expansion of tropical climate zones (Aw +14,172 km²; Af +1,038 km²) and a contraction of temperate regions (−15,365 km²). Approximately 68% of observed LULC changes spatially correspond with shifting climate zones, suggesting strong land–climate coupling. Transition zones, covering only 15% of Taiwan’s land area, exhibit disaster frequencies 2.8 times higher than stable regions. Warming transition areas account for over half of typhoon-induced landslides and a substantial proportion of major flood events in recent years. Localized warming exceeding 1°C is closely linked to albedo reduction from deforestation, while intensified precipitation extremes correlate with agricultural expansion (r = 0.73). These findings highlight climate transition zones as emerging hazard hotspots and underscore the need for dynamic, climate-informed land-use planning strategies.