MODELING THE DEVELOPMENTS IN URBANISATION AND RELATIONSHIP WITH VEGETATION COVER IN ALANYA

Abstract. The increase in the world population and the migration of people from rural to urban areas causes an increase in artificial surfaces and causes many negative effects on the ecosystem, regional climate variations and global diversity. Nowadays, as the effects of climate change are felt more and more, it has gained importance in researches on this subject. Therefore, the estimation of the change in the vegetation density for the coming years and the determination of the land use / land cover (LULC) change in cities are very essential for urban planning. In this study, the effects of regional urbanization on vegetation are examined by using satellite data and atmospheric variables. In the vegetation analysis, multi-time index values obtained from TERRA-MODIS satellite, EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) and LST (Land Surface Temperature) were taken into account between the years of 2005 and 2018 in Alanya, Turkey. Temperature and precipitation were selected as the atmospheric variables and expected variations in EVI value until 2030 were estimated. In the study employed a wavelet-transformed artificial neural network (WANN) model to generate long-term (12-year) EVI forecasts using LST, temperature and precipitation. The relationship between land use / land cover and urbanization is investigated with NDBI (Normalized Difference Built-up Index) data obtained from the Landsat 8 OLI / TIRS satellite sensor. The simulation results show that The EVI value, which was 0.30 in 2018, will decrease to 0.25 in 2030.