PREDICTION OF POPULATION DISTRIBUTION IN 2030 USING THE INTEGRATION OF THE CA-ANN LAND COVER CHANGE METHOD WITH NUMERIC EXTRAPOLATION IN KARAWANG-BEKASI, INDONESIA

Abstract. Population growth continues to increase every year. It is recorded that in 2022 the world population will reach 7,953,952,567 or an increase of 1% from 2021. The increasing number of residents encourages land use/land cover changes to become settlements. In addition to changes in land use/land cover, there is also population mobilization from one place to another. This population movement will coincide with developments that will occur in the area. Monitoring population distribution is necessary to have no concentration in only one area. Areas with too dense a population will cause many problems such as the emergence of slum buildings, congestion, and flooding. In this case, the population density is centralized due to poor regional planning. The absence of prediction of future population distribution is one of the reasons why urban planning in the future is not optimal. This study aims to predict the distribution of the population in 2030. In predicting the distribution of population in 2030, it integrates the prediction of land use/land cover in 2030 with the prediction of the population in 2030. In predicting land use/land in 2030, land use/land in 2005 and 2010 is used as the primary data for change prediction. The method used to predict changes in land use/land cover is the CA-ANN method by considering the driving factors of changes in the form of altitude, distance from the river, and distance from the road. Predicting the population of 2030 will be done by extrapolation using the three mathematical equations approach, they are linear, exponential, and power equation. The results of the prediction of land use/land and population in 2030 are then used to predict the population distribution in 2030. From the results, In the 2030 there was an increase in the class of settlements which reached an area of 745,169 Km² with the overall accuracy of the land cover model reached 82%. The largest population projection come from exponential equation that until 13024668 in 2030. The model population distribution in 2030, show that there is no significant different between three projection model to be used in model population distribution 2030. It is hoped that this research can be a reference for policymakers in planning sustainable urban development.