Patterns of natural vegetation removal in the Caatinga biome in Prodes Project scope

Abstract. The native vegetation removal (NVR) of Caatinga Brazilian biome has been mapped by Prodes Project coordinated by National Institute for Spatial Research (INPE) between 2000 to 2023 year. Prodes is considered an official government product for achieving Brazilian and international targets for the conservation of natural vegetation. Therefore, Prodes is committed to achieving the highest possible accuracy associated with the history of mapping already carried out, by visual interpretation of satellite images and the use of past mapping masks techniques. Mapping NVR in Caatinga biome is a major challenge compared to biomes where the tree canopy with native vegetation prevails. Caatinga is one of the least protected of Brazilian biomes and is in one of the most pressured semi-arid regions on the planet. This work aims to present the NVR in Caatinga biome from Prodes data, in terms of its trajectory and main geographical patterns, concerning the municipalities, and areas that are the focus of monitoring, conservation or restoration. According to Prodes results, by 2023, the cumulative NVR in the entire Caatinga reached 43,05%; in 2000, this figure was 29,54%. The major NVR occurred in the easternmost areas of Caatinga and regions of Serrinha and Feira de Santana in Bahia State. Also, there are areas with considerable NVR further inside the biome, such as, Irecê and Guanambi region in Bahia, west of Pernambuco and Paraíba States and South and North of Ceará State. Areas prioritized for conservation actions showed high NVR values, indicating the urgent need for implementation of such actions. The fact that Desertification Cores showed low NVR values is important, and these regions should be closely monitored to prevent uncontrolled NVR rates. The two regions with high anthropic pressure or speculation showed contrasting behaviors; while the Araripe Gypsum Pole exhibited higher NVR levels compared to the control area, the São Francisco River integration project (PISF) so far does not appear significantly different from the rest of the biome. Overall, this study clearly demonstrates the potential of monitoring the Caatinga through Prodes in understanding and integrating the various factors influencing changes in the biome's native vegetation cover. Future approaches should move beyond descriptive studies to increasingly contribute to the territorial management of this important Brazilian region.