Assessment of Economic Recovery in Shanghai, China after the Pandemic Using Quarterly Nighttime Light Data

Abstract. The COVID-19 pandemic, which spanned from 2020 to 2022, significantly influenced socio-economic activities in Shanghai, China. Analysing the recovery of the Shanghai economy from the effects of the pandemic is crucial for understanding broader trends in China's economic development. A novel light correction index was developed by integrating nighttime light (NTL) data, point of interest (POI), the enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and population data. This index was subsequently combined with provincial quarterly GDP data to estimate county-level GDP. Economic recovery frameworks were then established for all districts in Shanghai to comprehensively assess their performance in recovering from the pandemic. The findings indicate that the novel light index effectively quantifies the intensity of human socio-economic activities while mitigating the oversaturation and blooming effects associated with NTL data. The average coefficient of determination (R²) between the estimated county-level GDP and actual GDP is 0.801. Furthermore, the average R² for the developed economic recovery frameworks for the county-level districts before and after the pandemic is 0.948 and 0.748, respectively. These findings can serve as valuable indicators for assessing the economic recovery of Shanghai. It can be concluded that most districts in Shanghai demonstrated low economic resilience before and after the pandemic. Although the overall economy of Shanghai experienced growth, the growth rate was notably lower than the pre-pandemic level. As of the end of 2023, Shanghai's economy had not yet fully recovered to its pre-pandemic level.