TOWARD SPATIAL AND SOCIAL EQUALITY: INVESTIGATING AND MODELING THE LINK BETWEEN OPPORTUNITY AND URBAN INTENSITY IN METRO MANILA, PHILIPPINES

Abstract. This paper employed an interdisciplinary mixed-method approach combining geomatics, geography, and sociology to investigate the link between opportunity and urban intensity across the 32 legislative districts of Metro Manila. Eighteen opportunity indicators, weighted within their opportunity dimensions using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) were used to output Opportunity Scores, while annual VIIRS DNB nighttime light was used as proxy data to approximate the region’s Urban Intensity Score. Two regression models were developed with different sets of explanatory variables: an AHP-based model that used the top two weighted indicators from each opportunity dimension, and a model that used Exploratory Regression Analysis (ERA) to determine the appropriate variable combination. Modeling via Ordinary Least Squares Regression (OLS) produced a properly specified global model, while OLS modeling of the ERA-based model exhibited non-stationarity between variables which necessitated performing Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). Our quantitative findings, combined with insights from our mini focus group discussion (FGD), provided evidence of the unequal distribution of opportunities across Metro Manila and the spatially varying relationship between urban intensity and opportunity, which have significant implications for urban framework as well as housing choice.