SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF VIOLENT CONFLICT AND LAND COVER CHANGE IN LANAO DEL SUR FROM 2011 TO 2020

Abstract. With Lanao del Sur historically being a setting for numerous violent conflict events, its land use and land cover (LULC) manifest the direct and indirect effects of conflict such as destruction and forced displacement that influences land cover change (LCC). Tracking LULC changes can determine the extent of damage induced by conflicts and support the crafting of policies toward sustainable development. To see how conflict has affected the land systems, Landsat-7, and -8 imagery from 2011 to 2020 were used to examine Lanao del Sur's periodic land covers and their trajectories. Barangay-level conflict incidence was also used to identify areas with both high conflict incidence and high rates of LCC. Trajectory analysis revealed patterns in land processes: afforestation coinciding with abandonment, and cultivation being bordered by deforestation as the connecting grassland cover decreases. Decreases in grassland cover were simultaneous with an increase in agricultural lands. Generally coinciding with conflict hotspots, areas with high conflict incidence and land cover change were typically found in urban centers, near water bodies, and provincial boundaries where there was a high volume of human activities. Meanwhile, areas with low conflict incidence and LCC were found in forested areas. Overall, there is a significant positive correlation between conflict occurrences and LCC (r = 0.388), with abandonment (r = 0.533) and cultivation (r = 0.546) having moderate strengths of association.