FIRE WEATHER INDEX AND FOREST FIRE DANGER MAPPING: INSIGHTS FROM A CASE STUDY IN ANTALYA - MANAVGAT FOREST, TURKIYE

Abstract. Forest fires in Türkiye, like in other regions, have detrimental effects on wildlife habitats, water quality, air pollution, climate change, and the economy. These fires become particularly concerning during the dry summer months. In 2021, forest fires affected over 150 thousand hectares of land across the country, with the Manavgat district in Antalya province alone witnessing the burning of approximately 60 thousand hectares of forest area. This study aims to assess the applicability and suitability of Fire Weather Index (FWI) data derived from meteorological station data in the Antalya region, as well as EFFIS FWI data generated using satellite-based meteorological information, for fire danger mapping during the Manavgat forest fire that occurred between 28 July and 6 August 2021. Additionally, correlation analyses were performed between the two FWI datasets and other relevant variables, including the difference in Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR), the difference in Land Surface Temperature (dLST), and Fire Radiative Power (FRP) data detected from MODIS and VIIRS satellites. The results of the correlation analysis indicated that the FWI values obtained using in-situ meteorology station data showed much higher correlations than FWI values obtained from EFFIS, with the highest correlation (73%) observed with dLST data. Consequently, the fire danger map was created using the in-situ meteorological data, given its stronger correlation. The results prominently revealed a widespread high-risk level across the entire Antalya province, with the Manavgat district classified into the "Extreme" and "Very Extreme" FWI classes, emphasizing the critical importance of utilizing in-situ meteorological data for precise fire danger assessments and proactive fire management strategies.