Development of an Explainable GeoAI Wildfire Risk Analysis Model Using Multi-Source Geospatial Data

Abstract. Accounting for approximately 31% of the global land surface, forests play a critical and indispensable role in sustaining ecological balance. Among the various pressures affecting forests, forest fires constitute a major environmental problem, posing significant threats to natural ecosystems while disrupting forestry activities and leading to substantial economic losses. In Türkiye, forest fires are predominantly observed in the Aegean, Mediterranean, and Marmara regions. This study presents a proactive, explainable GeoAI framework for wildfire risk analysis by integrating multi-source geospatial data. The methodology calculates a physical hazard index by evaluating advanced ensemble machine learning algorithm, specifically extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) with the latter demonstrating superior predictive performance. The model is driven by topographic, meteorological, biotic and anthropogenic parameters. In parallel, a comprehensive vulnerability matrix encompassing physical, social, economic and environmental dimensions is constructed utilizing the Best-Worst Method (BWM). These two main components are spatially synthesized in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) environment. The model's interpretability is enhanced focusing on feature importance to identify the primary drivers of fire ignition and spread. Results demonstrate that anthropogenic pressures and Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) dynamics are the most significant risk determinants. The resulting high-resolution maps provide a robust Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) for local authorities, enabling targeted mitigation strategies and contributing to the development of sustainable, smart and resilient cities.