Identification of Factors Causing Land Cover Change in the Cikapundung Watershed

Abstract. Land cover change (LCC) is one of the most important global environmental issues in this modern era. Land cover change that occurs at local scales can impact global ecosystems due to cascading effects. The relationship between human population growth, urbanization, and land resource pressures at various spatial and temporal scales has led to these changes. In Bandung City, the increase in population and urbanization over the years has led to a decrease in land resources and a worsening of disasters and climate change. This includes the Cikapundung watershed, where the transformations of green land into built-up areas have caused flooding that affected more than 600 houses in early 2024. This makes it even more important to not only understand historical and current land cover change patterns, but also understand the causes of land cover change and predict future spatiotemporal trends for strategic planning of human settlements, land use, and resource conservation in Bandung City. This study aims to identify the causal factors of long-term land cover change over 50 years (1973–2023) in the Cikapundung watershed and its surroundings. Land cover classification was conducted using random forest algorithm based on Landsat 5, Landsat 8, and Sentinel-2 satellite images. The causal factors of LCC were identified to see the change from non-urban to urban using regression analysis. This study is intended to provide insight into the factors influencing LCC in the Cikapundung watershed and its surroundings so that it can be used to develop effective policies to mitigate the significant impacts of land cover change.