GIS FOR PREDICTING THE AVALANCHE ZONES IN THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS OF KAZAKHSTAN

Abstract. Foothills of Trans Ili Alatau is a recreational area with buildings and sports facilities and resorts, sanatoriums, etc. In summer and winter there are a very large number of skiers, climbers, tourists and workers of organizations which located in the mountains. In this regard, forecasting natural destructive phenomena using GIS software is an important task of many scientific fields. The formation of avalanches, except meteorological conditions, such as temperature, wind speed, snow thickness, especially affecting mountainous terrain. Great importance in the formation of avalanches play steepness (slope) of the slope and exposure. If steep slopes contribute to the accumulation of snow in some places, increase the risk of flooding of the slope, the various irregularities can delay an avalanche. According to statistics, the bulk of the avalanche is formed on the slopes steeper than 30°. In the course of research a 3D model of the terrain was created with the help of programs ArcGIS and Surfer. Identified areas with steep slopes, the exposure is made to the cardinal. For dangerous terrain location is divided into three groups: favorable zone, danger zone and the zone of increased risk. The range of deviations from 30-45° is dangerous, since the angle of inclination of more than 30°, there is a maximum thickness of sliding snow, water, the upper layer of the surface and there is an increase rate of moving array, and the mountain slopes at an angle 450 above are the area increased risk. Created on DTM data are also plotted Weather Service for the winter of current year. The resulting model allows to get information upon request and display it on map base, assess the condition of the terrain by avalanches, as well as to solve the problem of life safety in mountainous areas, to develop measures to prevent emergency situations and prevent human losses.