Spatio-temporal Urban Change Analysis and the Ecological Threats Concerning The Third Bridge in Istanbul City

Abstract. Urban growth is a complex dynamical process associated with landscape change driving forces such as the environment, politics, geography and many others that affect the city at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Istanbul, one of the largest agglomerations in Europe and the fifth-largest city in the world in terms of population within city limits, has been growing very rapidly over the late 20th century at a rate of 3.45 %, causing to have many environmental issues. Recently, Istanbul's new third bridge and proposed new routes for across the Bosphorus are foreseen to not only threaten the ecology of the city, but also it will give a way to new areas for unplanned urbanization. The dimensions of this threat are affirmed by the urban sprawl especially after the construction of the second bridge and the connections such as Trans European Motorway (TEM).

Since the spatial and temporal components of urbanization can be more simply identified through modeling, this study aims to analyze the urban change and assess the ecological threats in Istanbul city through the proper modeling for the year 2040. For this purpose, commonly used urban modeling approach, the Markov Chain within Cellular Automata (CA), was selected to simulate urban/non-urban growth process. CA is a simple and effective tool to capture and simulate the complexity of urban system dynamic. The key factor for a Markov is the transition probability matrix, which defines change trend from past to today and into the future for a certain class type, and land use suitability maps for urban. Multi Criteria Analysis was used to build these suitability maps. Distance from each pixel to the urban, road and water classes, plus the elevation, slope and land use maps (as excluded layer) were defined as factors. Calibration data were obtained from remotely sensed data recorded in 1972, 1986 and 2013. Validation was performed by overlaying the simulated and actual 2013 urban maps and Kappa Index of Agreement was calculated. The results indicate that the urban expansion will influence mainly forest areas during the time period of 1972–2040.