PREDICTION OF FUTURE LAND USE LAND COVER CHANGES OF KELANTAN, MALAYSIA

Abstract. Land use land cover change (LULC) is a dynamic process, which is largely influenced by anthropogenic effect. In less urbanized area, human activities such as agricultural expansion, timber extraction and infrastructure development, has caused LULC transformation at alarming rate. Understanding of the potential future LULC changes is necessary for town planners and local authorities to formulate and design town planning. Besides that, the projected LULC patterns could also be incorporated into other models to further evaluate the impact of LULC changes on environment, agricultural, ecosystem, water resources and health. This study projected a future LULC scenario of Kelantan, Malaysia, using an integrated GIS CA-Markov model. The model achieved an accuracy of 78.57% when compared with the LULC map of 2008. Built-up area has increased by 111 km², while forest area has decreased 1532 km² in the past 15 years. Results showed that the built-up area, oil palm, and rubber plantation are expected to increase to 181.69 km², 2142.48 km², and 3076.24 km², respectively, in 2025. By contrast, forest and paddy area are projected to decrease to 8548.20 km², and 693.44 km² respectively. Urban expansion is mainly found in the northern part of the state, while oil palm expansion in the southern part of the state. It was predicted that this pattern will continue in the next thirty years where built-up and agriculture area continued to expand at the stake of forest area. The findings provide useful information for planners in planning for future development and safeguarding the environment.