Multi-Scenario Prediction of Ecosystem Service Value in Huzhou City Based on the PLUS Model

Abstract. Assessment and prediction of ecosystem service value is important for future land management policies and spatial optimization. Taking Huzhou City as the study area, this study combined the PLUS model and Markov chain to simulate land use patterns under three scenarios for 2030, and applied a revised equivalence factor method to assess ESV. The results showed that, from 2010 to 2020, construction land expanded continuously, whereas cropland and forest land decreased to different degrees. During the same period, the total ESV increased from 50.91 billion yuan to 53.31 billion yuan. Water bodies contributed the largest share of total ESV, and hydrological regulation remained the dominant ecosystem service function. The multi-scenario prediction results showed distinct disparities in future land use and ESV. Compared with the urban development and natural development scenarios, ecological protection scenario effectively limited the conversion of cropland and forest to construction land, and led to an increase in the conversion of water bodies. Among the three scenarios, the ecological protection scenario had the highest total ESV in 2030 (55.88 billion yuan), followed by the natural development scenario (55.29 billion yuan), while the urban development scenario resulted in the lowest total ESV (54.89 billion yuan).