Spatial and temporal predictions of mosquito potential breeding sites and densities: integration of satellite imagery, in-situ data, and process-based modeling

Abstract. Dengue fever, primarily transmitted worldwide by the mosquito Aedes aegypti, poses significant public health challenges in tropical and subtropical regions. While effective vector control is crucial in the absence of reliable dengue vaccines, traditional control methods face obstacles like mosquito resistance to insecticides and a very high cost. By combining geospatial data, including satellite imagery, as descriptors, and entomological surveys as target variables in a Random Forest model, we predicted the number of potential mosquito breeding sites, derived the associated environmental carrying capacity for larvae, and used the Arbocarto process-based model to predict Ae.aegypti population densities in an urban region of French Guiana, South America. Our findings highlight that remote sensing data may help predict the number of potential breeding sites over urban areas. Our simulations indicate higher mosquito densities in urban residential areas and a strong spatial and temporal heterogeneity. These densities fluctuate according to intra-annual variations in temperature and precipitation, with higher densities associated with intermediate housing. A comparison with the conventional estimation of environmental carrying capacity for larvae in the current Arbocarto procedure highlights the advantages of our approach. Our study demonstrates the utility of integrating remote sensing with predictive modeling to enhance vector surveillance and control strategies, and provides a replicable approach for monitoring a dengue vector mosquito population in dynamic urban landscapes.