SIMULATION OF ECOLOGICAL RISK IN BEIJING USING MOP-PLUS MODEL

Abstract. The accelerated urbanisation, threatening the integrity of ecological environment. The lack of future simulation in ecological risk assessment in current studies. Especially in metropolis, to address this problem, this study uses the Multiple objective programming (MOP) and the improved patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) models to simulate land use in Beijing in 2035 under the Natural Development (ND) scenario and the Liveable City (LC) scenario; the changes in land types and land transfers under different scenarios are analysed. In addition, a landscape ecological risk assessment method was applied to analyse the ecological risks caused by land use in each scenario. The study found that, in general, the dominant trend of land use change in Beijing is the shift from construction land to ecological land. The spatial pattern of ecological risk is polarized from east to west, and the conversion of a large amount of built-up land to arable land or grassland, and the high vulnerability of arable land and grassland to human destruction, are the reasons for the continuous increase in ecological risk in Beijing. The area of construction land in the LC scenario is closer to the planned area than in the ND scenario, and the ecological risks faced by the LC scenario are slightly lower than those of the ND scenario. Therefore, it is reasonable to use the LC scenario to simulate the land use situation in Beijing in 2035.