Two Decades of Coastal Development across the Arabian Gulf: Insights from Remote Sensing and Machine Learning

Abstract. This study analyzes land use and land cover (LULC) changes in the Arabian Gulf coastal zone between 2001 and 2021, revealing significant transformations driven by urbanization, coastal reclamation, inundation and urban vegetation expansion. Using Landsat imagery, classified with a high-accuracy Random Forest algorithm, the results show that urban areas expanded by 55.3% regionally, from 6,369.4 km² to 9,888.1 km², primarily due to large-scale infrastructure projects in key coastal urban centers. Developments like artificial islands and ports contributed to the conversion of barren land and coastal waters into urban environments. Water bodies experienced a modest net increase in area of 0.34% largely through growth in urban water features, with opposing trends: coastal reclamation reduced water coverage in some areas, while inundation driven by tidal expansion and possible sea-level rise increased it in low-lying regions. Vegetation cover increased by 41.8%, reflecting urban greening initiatives, though localized losses were observed in rapidly urbanizing areas. Barren land showed a slight net increase of 1.96%, influenced by land degradation, and land degradation. These findings emphasize the complex interactions between urbanization and environmental processes, underscoring the need for sustainable planning strategies. Future research will focus on detailed analyses of vegetation, urbanization trends, and long-term inundation patterns to better support climate adaptation and regional resilience planning in the Arabian Gulf.