Two Decades of Coastal Development across the Arabian Gulf: Insights from Remote Sensing and Machine Learning

An analysis of model and reanalysis data reveals that extreme summer temperatures in the Arabian/Persian Gulf are driven by weakened local northwesterly Shamal winds and intensified monsoon winds over the Arabian Sea. These conditions – typically associated with La Niña and a negative NAO phase – increase air moisture over the Gulf and enhance surface heat trapping. The findings offer promising prospects for forecasting summer marine heatwaves in the Gulf and supporting mitigation efforts.