Two Decades of Coastal Development across the Arabian Gulf: Insights from Remote Sensing and Machine Learning

Sir Bu Nair Island hosts some of the healthiest coral reefs remaining in the Arabian Gulf despite extreme summer heat. Using 17 months of observations, we found that tides dominate local currents, while winds and lower-frequency circulation are associated with changes in vertical temperature structure. Regional and local processes interact to create highly variable conditions around the island, with important implications for coral exposure to heat stress.

An analysis of model and reanalysis data reveals that extreme summer sea surface temperatures in the Arabian/Persian Gulf are driven by weakened local Shamal winds and intensified monsoon winds over the Arabian Sea. These conditions – typically associated with La Niña and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation phase – increase air moisture over the Gulf and enhance surface heat trapping. The findings offer promising prospects for forecasting summer marine heatwaves in the Gulf.