Temporal Assessment of Methane Emissions in Relation to Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics Using Satellite Data in the Lakes District of Türkiye (2019–2024)

Abstract. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes have an important effect on the dynamics of climate change, affecting the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are directly related to the functioning of the climate system, and methane (CH₄) gas, in particular, stands out as one of the primary greenhouse gases due to its high global warming potential. In this context, systematically examining the effects of LULC changes on CH₄ emissions is fundamental to understanding regional and global climate change processes. In this context, this study determined the relationships between LULC changes and CH₄ emissions in the Lakes District of Türkiye. CH₄ emissions obtained from Sentinel 5P satellite data were correlated with classes obtained from the Sentinel 2 LULC dataset. The Pearson correlation analysis conducted to examine the relationship between LULC changes and CH₄ emissions yielded correlation values of −0.90 for water areas, −0.98 for forest areas, +0.98 for built-up areas, and +0.12 for agricultural areas. These results suggest that the decline in forest and water areas, as well as the expansion of built-up areas, is linked to the increase in CH₄ emissions. Although no significant change was observed in agricultural and pasture areas, the continuous increase in CH₄ emissions indicates the impact of agricultural and livestock activities on emissions. Additionally, a trend analysis was conducted to assess the temporal variation in CH₄ emissions. The Mann-Kendall test showed a statistically significant upward trend (p < 0.01) in CH₄ emissions during the 2019–2024 period. The Kendall's Tau value obtained was 0.53, reflecting a moderate positive relationship. However, it was determined that emissions peaked annually during the summer and autumn months (July–September) and remained relatively low during the spring and winter months (March–May and December–February). This demonstrates that temperature increases have an enhancing effect on CH₄ emissions.