Correlation of Land Use Land Cover Dynamics and Soil Moisture Variability over Zaria-Nigeria

Abstract. Soil moisture is an important part of the land water cycle. It affects ecosystem health, agricultural output, and climate regulation. Several factors influence its variability, especially land use and land cover (LULC). This study looked at how LULC relates to changes in soil moisture in Zaria, Nigeria. The study area is experiencing urban growth and agricultural expansion. Soil moisture data was retrieved from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). LULC maps were created from satellite images taken from 2000 to 2020. Partial correlation analysis was employed to determine the relationship between various land cover types and soil moisture. The results show strong positive correlations between soil moisture and vegetated areas (r = 0.9801) and also with water bodies (r = 0.9232). These results indicate that thick vegetation and nearby water bodies help retain soil moisture by reducing evaporation, improving infiltration, and increasing water-holding capacity. On the other hand, soil moisture has a strong negative correlation with built-up areas (r = −0.8723) and bare soil (r= −0.997). The study shows that LULC characteristics greatly impact soil moisture changes. The study finally demonstrated the vital role of vegetation and water features in maintaining soil moisture, while also highlighting the negative effects of urban expansion and land degradation in semi-arid areas like Zaria.