MULTI-TEMPORAL URBAN LAND-USE CHANGE DETECTION AND PREDICTION USING CNN-BASED CA-MARKOV MODEL FROM GAOFEN SATELLITE IMAGES

Abstract. The intelligent interpretation of land-use change has become a research frontier. Reasonably and effectively utilizing limited land resources and making scientific predictions to promote sustainable utilization of land resources is significant for establishing a resource-saving and environmentally friendly society. Remote sensing technology can efficiently complete multi-temporal and dynamic land-use change detection, especially using high-spatial resolution remote sensing images. However, the existing land-use change and prediction have not been combined. In addition, land-use change detection mainly relies on shallow feature design, resulting in low prediction accuracy and weak generalization performance. To solve the above problems, we proposed a CNN-based CA Markov model using multi-temporal GaoFen satellite remote sensing images for the change detection and prediction of land cover. Taking the city of Panzhihua in China as an example, the study constructed training sample data that includes a multi-temporal remote sensing training dataset from 2006, 2010, 2015, and 2021 using GaoFen satellite remote sensing images. Meanwhile, a multitemporal CNN land-use detection model was constructed to generate a land-use transfer matrix by training the dataset. Furthermore, the comprehensive driving factors were selected, including terrain factors (height and slope) and social factors (economic and population density). Then, the CA-Markov model was constructed to predict the land-use development trend in Panzhihua City after ten years. Compared with the traditional methods, experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model can improve the model's automatic interpretation ability and prediction accuracy with an increase of 24.6% in the FoM index and 4.37% in the Kappa coefficient.