ESTIMATION OF PHOSPHORUS EMISSIONS IN THE UPPER IGUAZU BASIN (BRAZIL) USING GIS AND THE MORE MODEL

HBV-Light was calibrated and validated with simultaneously recorded discharge and precipitation data of the years 1989–2009. Results show, that the raw Regional Climate Model series overestimate precipitation sums by the factor of two or more. HBV modeling shows an increase for the yearly average cumulative precipitation until the end of the century between 10-30%. The dry season is likely to become longer and drier.