ANALYSIS OF THE GRAVITY MODELS IMPACT ON LEO SATELLITE ORBIT PREDICTION

Abstract. Non-spherical gravity plays a crucial role in the LEO satellite orbit determination and prediction. In recent years, several new gravity models have been proposed with more comprehensive ground and space-borne data. The impact of the gravity models has been extensively studied while its impact on the orbit prediction has not attracted enough attention. With the risen of the mega LEO constellation, new applications such as the LEO navigation requires real-time precise orbit, which increases the importance of the precise orbit prediction. In this study, we selected six popular gravity models, namely JGM3, EGM2008, EGM96, EIGEN2, GL04C, and GGM03S, and compared their performance in different LEO orbit predictions. The comparison results indicate that there is no single optimal gravity model for all LEO orbit prediction scenarios. For short-term prediction, JGM3, EGM2008, GL04C models perform better while in long-term prediction JGM3, EGM96, EIGEN2 have more potential. The results also reveal that the optimal model changed with time. In addition, the impact of the gravity order on the orbit prediction is investigated, the results indicate that for satellites with lower orbital heights, the gravitational field order required to achieve a certain truncation error is higher than for satellites with higher orbital heights. The authors also explore the effect of gravitational field-associated permanent tides on orbital prediction. In one day, for satellites with an orbital altitude of about 970km, the effect of permanent tides on 3D RMS is 6.92m; for satellites around 710km, the effect of permanent tides on 3D RMS is 4.20m; for satellites around 970km, the effect of permanent tides on 3D RMS is 2.07m.